Intense weather system poised to strengthen into major tropical storm

Formation of a “home brew” tropical storm appears more likely as a growing mass of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to congeal as the week progresses.

Non-tropical storms that originate over the U.S. mainland and then develop just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic into tropical systems are often referred to by meteorologists as “home brew” tropical storms.

“AccuWeather meteorologists believe this system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression and could become Tropical Storm Barry later this week,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

There is an 80 percent chance that the system becomes a named tropical system in the next five days, AccuWeather meteorologists predict.

“The exact track and strength of the feature is uncertain until it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico and becomes better organized during the middle part of this week,” Kottlowski said.

Related: 2019 spring weather across the U.S.

16 PHOTOS2019 spring weather across the US See Gallery2019 spring weather across the US A vehicle drives through Mississippi River flood water in downtown Alton, Il. on Monday, May 6, 2019. Flooding from the Mississippi River closed streets in downtown, forced the closure of Argosy Casino and flooded the basements of several businesses. The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 34.8 feet later on Monday, almost 14 feet above flood stage. The red painted line beneath the American flag on the grain silos denotes the height of flood water in 1993. (David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP)Water from the swelling Mississippi River covers roadways and surrounds houses on Saturday, May 4, 2019 in Foley, Mo. he National Weather Service at St. Louis says rain in the coming days will determine whether Mississippi River levels will rise more than expected. A flood warning continues for areas on either side of the river from Minnesota all the way to Louisiana, where the river empties into the Gulf of Mexico.(Colter Peterson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP)A runner makes his way along South Grandview Ave. during a snowfall Saturday, April 27, 2019 in Dubuque, Iowa. (Dave Kettering/Telegraph Herald via AP)John Love of Pacific Junction, Iowa, stands in flood water to wash the muck off of his golf clubs which were in a flooded shed Thursday, April 18, 2019. The mandatory evacuation of the city during the flooding from the Missouri River has been lifted Thursday and residents and owners were allowed to return to their property to determine the viability of their premises. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)Marissa Whitman, 20, wades in about 3 feet of floodwater from the swelling Mississippi River, while guiding a boat carrying her boyfriend Brendan Cameron and his mother, Tory Cameron, to their home along Pet Street, Sunday, May 5, 2019, in East Foley, Mo. “I just need to see if the water reached inside,” said Tory. The family had to evacuate Saturday when the water rose suddenly. (Laurie Skrivan/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP)A van stands in floodwaters as cornstalks cover its roof after a flood inundated Pacific Junction, Iowa, Thursday, April 18, 2019. The mandatory evacuation of the city during the flooding from the Missouri River has been lifted Thursday and residents and owners were allowed to return to their property to determine the viability of their premises. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)Floodwaters surround a home, Wednesday, May 29, 2019, in Ottumwa, Iowa, as rising waters from the Des Moines River has forced residents out of homes along the riverbank. (Matt Milner/The Ottumwa Courier via AP)Residents load sandbags onto a truck Wednesday, May 29, 2019, in Ottumwa, Iowa, as floodwaters from the Des Moines River has forced residents out of homes along the riverbank. (Matt Milner/The Ottumwa Courier via AP)In this Tuesday, May 22, 2019 photo, a late-spring snowstorm fell in Red Cliff, Colo. The unusually cold weather impacted other parts of the West, including California, that were hit by late spring storms. A storm dumped heavy, wet snow in Colorado and Wyoming, cancelling flights and snapping newly greened up tree limbs. (Chris Dillmann/Vail Daily via AP)Frisco resident Dianne Stuhr walks with her dogs, Winston and Patty, Tuesday, May 21, 2019, along Tenmile Creek in Frisco, Colo. Nearby Breckenridge Ski Resort reported 9 inches of snow overnight. (Hugh Carey/Summit Daily News via AP)This image from a Caltrans traffic camera shows traffic moving along Interstate 80 past new snow Thursday, May 16, 2019, at Donner Summit, Calif. Slopes of the Sierra Nevada sported fresh powder Thursday as a late-spring storm with a winter-like potency moved through California, adding to snowpack and rainfall accumulations that were already well above normal. (Caltrans via AP)In this May 10, 2019 photo, flood waters from the Missouri River flow through a break in a levee, north of Hamburg, Iowa. Communities that were flooded when levees failed along the Missouri River earlier this spring will likely remain exposed to high water for months to come. More than 40 levees were damaged but only a handful of construction contracts to fix them have been issued. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)Repair and cleaning efforts begin on a neighborhood damaged by a tornado storm system that passed through the area, destroying homes and cutting off access to utilities, Wednesday, May 29, 2019, in Dayton, Ohio. Tens of thousands of Ohio residents were still without power or water Wednesday in the aftermath of strong tornadoes that spun through the Midwest.(AP Photo/John Minchillo)Repair and cleaning efforts begin on a neighborhood damaged by a tornado storm system that passed through the area, destroying homes and cutting off access to utilities, Wednesday, May 29, 2019, in Dayton, Ohio. Tens of thousands of Ohio residents were still without power or water Wednesday in the aftermath of strong tornadoes that spun through the Midwest.(AP Photo/John Minchillo)People watch from the Liberty Memorial as a severe storm that dropped several tornados earlier approaches downtown Kansas City, Mo., Tuesday, May 28, 2019. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)In this aerial image, debris from damaged homes litters the properties on Fairground Road after a tornado storm system passed through the area the previous night, Tuesday, May 28, 2019, in Celina, Ohio. A rapid-fire line of apparent tornadoes tore across Indiana and Ohio overnight, packed so closely together that one crossed the path carved by another. At least half a dozen communities from eastern Indiana through central Ohio suffered damage, according to the National Weather Service. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)Up Next

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A slow westward drift of this area of disturbed weather is expected much of this week. However, how far away from the coast the center forms is likely to determine how strong the feature will become.

A center that forms right near the coast may not get very strong due to frictional effects of the land.

A center that forms a 100 miles or more offshore could strengthen quickly in the low wind shear environment with water temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F.

“Our greatest concern is for torrential rain that would result in significant flooding,” Kottlowski said.

Given the westward, slow-moving nature of the storm, a general 2-8 inches of rain is likely from the Florida Panhandle to the upper part of the Texas coast.

However, near and just north of where the center of the storm makes landfall, rainfall is likely to increase at an exponential rate.

“Portions of southern Louisiana could pick up 1-2 feet of rain from late this week through the weekend,” Kottlowski said.

Southeastern Texas may also receive similar rainfall, but only if the storm were to move ashore along the western Gulf coast.

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