Lukashenko facing security headache as Belarus HQ ‘vulnerable’

Ukraine: UK and Poland need 'multi domain perspective' says Raubo

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The Belarusian dictator finds himself being strong-armed by Vladimir Putin into playing a larger role in the invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has been a staging area for Russian forces and formed the launch pad for the Russian military’s ill-fated push on Kyiv in the early days of the invasion. High-level military talks on strengthening cooperation have been held between Lukashenko and Putin’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, fuelling fears of a renewed plan to strike into northern Ukraine. Security experts have noted the direct involvement of Belarusian troops could provide a window for Western intelligence agencies to extend their spy networks into the heart of Lukashenko’s military.   

Dr Raubo told Express.co.uk: “We are right now observing a large number of intelligence sources coming from inside Russia, coming from inside Russian forces, we see signals intelligence as well by capturing some messages coming from Russia and from soldiers to Russia.

“This is just a tiny part of this big victory over Russian intelligence capabilities.”

He added: “I think intelligence is winning this war.

“When we are observing how effectively [the West] can penetrate the Russian side we need to compare that to Belarus where you have more people who are connected to the democratic opposition.

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“You have more opportunities to get inside the main headquarters by using HUMINT methods, human intelligence. 

“So I think for now Ukraine does not need to view an all-out strike by Belarus as the main threat but the situation remains a grey zone with no black-and-white answers as to what Lukashenko might do.”

Belarus began moving troops and equipment on Wednesday as part of “counter-terrorism” exercises which western analysts fear could be a cover for another Russian attack.

Lukashenko has denied he intends to send Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine but Minsk has ordered soldiers to guard the country’s border along with Russian troops. 

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Belarus is a key ally for Russia in the region with the two countries forming a “Union State” with close economic and military ties.

Lukashenko had resisted pressure from the Kremlin to station Russian soldiers inside Belarus prior to the pro-democracy protests which erupted after the country’s disputed 2020 elections.

After the protests were quashed with the Kremlin’s help Lukashenko conceded to Russian military deployments on Belarusian territory.

In October, Lukashenko announced 9,000 Russian troops would be stationed in Belarus as part of joint exercises. 

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Meanwhile, Putin continues to struggle to make headway in Ukraine amid poor tactics and determined resistance on the ground. 

After the re-capture of Kherson last month, Ukraine has been forecast to inflict further setbacks on Russia.

Retired US commander Mark Hertling recently told CNN: “I think we’re gonna see because of a variety of factors Ukraine having a cross over the Dnipro river, Russia trying to force mobilise forces to the front.

“Some very good victories recently by Ukraine in both the Northeast and the Southeast. I think we’re going to see a little bit of slowing down, but Ukraine continues to defend well and fight and gain more ground.”

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