In recent weeks, a mood of cautious optimism swept through rugby fans and sports analysts in New Zealand. After a year of dismal performances, the All Blacks, New Zealand\u2019s men\u2019s rugby team, seem at times to have regained the magic that long powered them to greatness.<\/p>\n
Now, some wonder \u2014 often in disbelief, and with several caveats \u2014 whether that streak might lead them to the highest honor in men\u2019s rugby: winning the World Cup.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re miles ahead of where they were 12 months ago,\u201d said Dylan Cleaver, a veteran rugby analyst and a former sports editor of NZME, a New Zealand media company. With the exception of a devastating defeat to South Africa two weeks ago that underlined the precariousness of their recovery, Cleaver said, \u201ctheir World Cup preparation could hardly be better.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the All Blacks succeed, it would be a fairy-tale comeback for a group of beleaguered players and coaches who, through much of 2021 and 2022, seemed unable to do anything right. Despite their reputation as the world\u2019s greatest rugby team and an all-time winning rate of almost 80 percent, they lost over and over again.<\/p>\n
They lost to France, who routed them in Paris; to South Africa and then just a few weeks later, at home to Argentina; and, most humiliatingly, to Ireland, who beat them twice on home soil for New Zealand\u2019s first home-series defeat since 1994.<\/p>\n
Xavier O\u2019Meagher, a fan from Auckland who was in the stadium for Ireland\u2019s second victory, recalled the crowd\u2019s devastation and anger. Even though Ian Foster, the team\u2019s taciturn head coach, needed some support, O\u2019Meagher said, he \u201cwas now public enemy No. 1.\u201d<\/p>\n
The All Blacks sank to fourth in the world rankings, their lowest-ever placing, and fans resigned themselves to a long rebuilding process, with little optimism about the team\u2019s World Cup chances.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s no doubt I\u2019m under pressure, but I\u2019m always under pressure,\u201d Foster said at a news conference after the Ireland series. \u201cDoes it hurt? Yes it does.\u201d<\/p>\n
New Zealand Rugby, the sport\u2019s national governing body, was so frustrated that it almost fired Foster. He was saved only after the team eked out a victory against South Africa\u2019s Springboks last August that stemmed its string of losses.<\/p>\n
Even then, Foster was forced to replace two of his assistant coaches. New Zealand Rugby later took the unusual step of naming Foster\u2019s successor before he had left his role: a move tantamount to admitting it had lost faith in its top coach and didn\u2019t expect the team\u2019s results at the World Cup to change that.<\/p>\n
Since then, however, the All Blacks have done what began to seem impossible: They started winning again. They have won 10 of their past 12 matches, with the only exceptions being a draw to England at Twickenham Stadium in London and the loss to South Africa.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe pessimism about the All Blacks affected lots of people\u2019s thinking,\u201d said Rikki Swannell, a prominent New Zealand sports commentator for World Rugby and Sky TV NZ. \u201cWe didn\u2019t appreciate how much progress they made in the last year.\u201d<\/p>\n
A strong example of that progress came in July, during a home game against the Springboks, the defending world champions. Hardly four minutes into the match, Beauden Barrett, the All Blacks\u2019 star fullback, was faced with an incoming opponent. He flung the ball wide to Will Jordan on the wing, who plucked it from the air and began to sprint.<\/p>\n
Tackled to the ground by one Springbok, Jordan nonetheless sprang back up, slipped from his opponent\u2019s grasp and swept around a wall of three others. As players fell at Jordan\u2019s feet, he passed to Aaron Smith, who glided to a try.<\/p>\n
The moment encapsulated the Springboks\u2019 struggle in that match to contain their ebullient opponents, who at turns steamrollered and sidelined them. The All Blacks won, 35-20, to the delight of a crowd of fans who had long been starved of victories.<\/p>\n
On the field, much of that success is the result of a partnership between Barrett and the All Blacks\u2019 flyhalf, Richie Mo\u2019unga. They have been charged with a double-playmaker approach, which is meant to create a more dynamic style of play that is hard for opponents to predict. The structure is roughly equivalent to having two point guards on a basketball team, said Cleaver, the rugby analyst.<\/p>\n
\u201cBeing a pivot in the All Blacks demands that you are a leader, and I think when I first came in I wasn\u2019t ready for that or I didn\u2019t have the confidence,\u201d Mo\u2019unga recently told reporters, referring to his position. \u201cBut I think I\u2019m, more than ever, ready to own that role and take charge if the team needs me.\u201d<\/p>\n
In large part, Cleaver and Swannell attributed the team\u2019s growth to the sophisticated coaching of Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt, the assistant coaches who replaced Foster\u2019s previous deputies amid the troubles of last year.<\/p>\n
And while some of the issues that have weakened men\u2019s rugby in New Zealand remain \u2014 such as dropping participation at the youth level, creating an ever-narrower pipeline of talent \u2014 the national team\u2019s present success has revived a little of the excitement that was missing.<\/p>\n
\u201cGoing into this season, I was not very hopeful at all, given the All Blacks\u2019 struggles,\u201d said John Whitcombe, a fan from Christchurch. Now, however, \u201cI\u2019m feeling a lot more optimistic. I think we have a very realistic chance of winning.\u201d<\/p>\n
The All Blacks are not invincible, however, as they learned in their final pretournament match in late August. Facing the Springboks once more, the magic disappeared. Losing 35-7, New Zealand suffered its largest defeat in the team\u2019s history. The result dropped them from No. 2 back down to No. 4 in the world rankings.<\/p>\n
It was a flashback to the darker days of 2021 and 2022, and a reminder that success in the World Cup is by no means guaranteed. \u201cThey\u2019re still a good side,\u201d Cleaver said, \u201cbut beatable with the right game plan.\u201d<\/p>\n
The team also faces a \u201chorrendously hard\u201d draw, Cleaver said. \u201cIt\u2019s a dogfight to even get to the semifinals.\u201d<\/p>\n
New Zealand is in Pool A with France and could face South Africa or Ireland, both in Pool B, in the quarterfinals.<\/p>\n
But even if they do not win the World Cup, the return to a measure of success has scrambled the expected story line, in which a broken team would crash out of the tournament and be rebuilt by Scott Robertson, who is set to replace Foster as head coach.<\/p>\n
The turn in the All Blacks\u2019 fortunes may change Robertson\u2019s mission from transformation to solidification, a surprising reversal for the charismatic coach of the Crusaders, New Zealand\u2019s most dominant regional team, who might have expected greater latitude to stamp his vision upon the national side.<\/p>\n
The recent victories, setting aside the loss to the Springboks, also represent a partial vindication for Foster, Cleaver said, who will depart after the World Cup. Given the pressure he has dealt with, \u201cHow could you not be pleased for him?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The ultimate vindication would be to lift the World Cup trophy: something only three other New Zealand head coaches have been able to achieve.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would mean a lot for us to win the World Cup. That\u2019s our goal,\u201d Foster recently said. \u201cWe know how tough it\u2019s going to be.\u201d<\/p>\n