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<\/p>\nWhen governments have been in office for many years, they are subject to all kinds of stresses. Ministers and MPs are tired and sometimes punch-drunk by the endless tension of legislation and by the unceasing public drama that surrounds their lives.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sometimes major events have made this strain much more intense. The Covid pandemic lies across the past few years like a deep shadow.<\/p>\n
It was not as bad as an actual war, thank heaven, but it had many of the characteristics of such a crisis. Innocent people died, treasured traditions and freedoms were abandoned for the higher good, normal life was profoundly disrupted.<\/p>\n
And while there were instances of praiseworthy courage, brilliant scientific achievement and dutiful hard work, there were also losses and tragedies.<\/p>\n
As if this was not enough, the turmoil of Brexit tore apart many old certainties, and altered political alignments inside Parliament and outside it, probably for ever.<\/p>\n
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Our advice to Rishi Sunak and his MPs is simple. Be more conservative. Stay calm. Keep your disagreements private. Warn that Sir Keir’s Labour Party is far more Left-wing \u2013 on policy, spending and taxation \u2013 than it wants voters to believe. And keep doing and saying all these things until long after you are sick of them, because that is when the voters will begin to notice what you are saying<\/p>\n
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Such periods are good for Opposition parties, such as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, who either do not have any particularly new ideas or perhaps just want to keep quiet about the ones they do have \u2013 in case the voters do not like them<\/p>\n
Add to that the Ukraine war, the energy crisis and the current turmoil in Gaza, and it is hardly surprising that the era since 2010 has raised up and destroyed no fewer than four Tory Prime Ministers.<\/p>\n
Such periods are good for Opposition parties, such as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, who either do not have any particularly new ideas or perhaps just want to keep quiet about the ones they do have \u2013 in case the voters do not like them.<\/p>\n
Millions simply grow tired of the old faces and voices of the incumbents, as they might grow tired of a TV soap opera whose plot seems never to change. They stop listening to what the Government says. And this increases the confusion among Government MPs, who begin to fear being sacked from their agreeable posts simply because of a mood change they can do nothing to influence.<\/p>\n
Out of such conditions, all kinds of strange things are born. Governments try ever harder to get the attention of the voters who have turned away from them. MPs wonder if yet another change of face at the top will save their majorities after all. What all these people need is a good, restful Christmas break in which they can get some sleep and allow themselves to think. It is perfectly possible for political parties to retain office after long periods, if they keep their heads.<\/p>\n
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It is also a historical fact that a Tory victory in that year would have saved this country from some of the worst governance it ever underwent. Some may also remember 1992, when John Major’s government had been written off by many experts, but beat Neil Kinnock’s Labour Party with a decisive majority<\/p>\n
It remains a historical fact that the Tories, after 13 long years in government in 1964, came within four seats of staying in power for another five years, and might easily have done so if they had tried a little harder.<\/p>\n
It is also a historical fact that a Tory victory in that year would have saved this country from some of the worst governance it ever underwent. Some may also remember 1992, when John Major’s government had been written off by many experts, but beat Neil Kinnock’s Labour Party with a decisive majority.<\/p>\n
It is the chasing about after eye-catching headlines, and the fantasy that a change of leadership will solve the problem, that will convince Tory voters to stay at home, or to desert to some rebel faction that is likely to split the Conservative vote and hand Downing Street to Sir Keir Starmer.<\/p>\n
Our advice to Rishi Sunak and his MPs is simple. Be more conservative. Stay calm. Keep your disagreements private. Warn that Sir Keir’s Labour Party is far more Left-wing \u2013 on policy, spending and taxation \u2013 than it wants voters to believe. And keep doing and saying all these things until long after you are sick of them, because that is when the voters will begin to notice what you are saying.<\/p>\n
The Tories may be a little sated with the sweets of government, but if they propel themselves into Opposition, they will quickly tire of the sour taste of it.<\/p>\n
And millions of us will not enjoy the experience very much either.<\/p>\n